President Trump set an 8 PM deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the complete destruction of their military and civilian infrastructure. Two hours before that deadline, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council announced they were accepting a two-week ceasefire and would immediately begin reopening the Strait. Forty days of conflict. Forty days of the media telling us Trump was going to start World War III. And it ended with Iran folding like a cheap lawn chair at a Fourth of July barbecue.
But sure, tell us again how “diplomacy” is supposed to work. We tried diplomacy for decades. Obama gave them pallets of cash. Biden gave them sanctions relief. And what did we get? A closed Strait, $117-a-barrel oil, and American fighter jets getting shot down. Trump gave them 48 hours and a promise that their power grid would look like a parking lot. Guess which approach actually worked.
Here’s what happened. After Trump posted on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” — which sent every cable news anchor into a full-body convulsion — Iran suddenly discovered they were very interested in peace. Their Supreme National Security Council accepted the ceasefire, agreed to the “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, and even proposed a 10-point peace plan.
Oh, and what a peace plan it is.
Iran’s demands include the United States withdrawing combat forces from every regional base, lifting every single sanction, releasing all frozen Iranian assets, and — this is the good part — full payment of Iran’s “war-related damages.” They want us to pay THEM for the war THEY started by closing the most important shipping lane on the planet and shooting down one of our jets.
That’s like punching someone in the face and then handing them an invoice for your bruised knuckles.
Pakistan brokered the deal, which tells you everything you need to know about the state of European “leadership” right now. NATO couldn’t be bothered to lift a finger during 40 days of actual shooting, but Pakistan — Pakistan! — stepped up and got both sides to the table. Negotiations are set to begin in Islamabad on Friday. Meanwhile, NATO headquarters in Brussels is probably still trying to figure out where Iran is on a map.
The market reaction tells you everything. Oil crashed 8% within minutes of the announcement, dropping from $117 to about $103 a barrel. The stock market surged. Gas prices, which had been climbing toward record territory because Iran decided to play pirate with the world’s oil supply, are expected to start dropping within days.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called Trump to express support for the ceasefire, saying Israel backs the decision “subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks.” Translation: We’re on board as long as Iran actually does what they promised. Which, knowing Iran, is about as reliable as a campaign promise from a Democrat.
Now here’s the thing we all need to understand. Iran didn’t agree to this ceasefire because they had a change of heart. They didn’t suddenly discover the virtues of peace and international cooperation. They agreed because Trump made it crystal clear that the alternative was the complete obliteration of their infrastructure, their military, and their economy. Every power plant. Every bridge. Every military installation.
Peace through strength isn’t just a bumper sticker. It’s the only foreign policy that has ever actually worked with regimes like Iran.
The media, predictably, is already working overtime to frame this as Trump being “reckless” and then getting “lucky.” That’s not what happened. What happened is exactly what Trump said would happen. He told Iran to open the Strait or face annihilation. They opened the Strait. That’s not luck. That’s leverage.
Two weeks isn’t a permanent peace deal. We all know that. Iran’s 10-point wish list is a fantasy document that belongs in the same filing cabinet as their claim that their nuclear program is “purely for energy purposes.” The real negotiations start Friday, and they’re going to be brutal.
But for the first time in 40 days, ships are going to start moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. Gas prices are going to come down. And the ayatollahs are sitting in Tehran trying to figure out how they went from declaring “victory” to accepting every single one of Trump’s preconditions in less than two hours.
Welcome to the art of the deal. The real one.