In 1971, Henry Kissinger slipped into Beijing on a secret trip that stunned the world. A year later, Richard Nixon shook hands with Mao Zedong. The Soviets panicked. Within months, Moscow was signing arms deals with Nixon too.
Kissinger's rule was simple: America should always be closer to each of its rivals than they are to each other.
Donald Trump has clearly read the playbook.
The critics are furious that Trump may sit down with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the same table, possibly on the sidelines of next month's APEC summit in Shenzhen. These are bad men, the critics say. They run hostile regimes.
They're right about that part. They're wrong about what to do with it.
Russia and China are the only two nations that come close to America in nuclear and military muscle. In February 2022, days before Russia invaded Ukraine, they declared a "no limits" partnership. A Moscow-Beijing alliance aimed at the United States is every American war planner's nightmare. Russia brings the oil, the nukes and the battlefield experience. China brings the factories, the money and the navy.
Trump's job is to make sure that alliance never fully forms.
To Putin, the message is: don't get friendlier with Beijing than you are with us. To Xi: don't treat America as a bigger enemy than Russia. Keep both of them guessing, and neither one can count on the other.
The stakes go beyond Ukraine. Every month that war drags on, America's weapons stockpiles get thinner, and Beijing is watching closely. If Xi decides the United States is stretched too thin to defend Taiwan, he may decide it's time to move. Ending the war in Ukraine on terms that work for America makes a Taiwan invasion less tempting.
European leaders have plenty of opinions about all this. Many of them spent years spending less on defense than NATO asks, leaning on American weapons, and then lecturing Trump for trying to negotiate an end to the war. They've earned a seat in the audience.
Nixon was called naive for going to China. History called it genius.
Trump is sitting down with Putin and Xi together for one reason: so they can never get together without him.